Has the bubble already popped and we haven’t realized it yet? I recognize it could be considered a ludicrous question to even ask considering indices just made new all time highs last Friday and we’re barely down 2% on $SPX.
And frankly I don’t know the answer myself here, but in context of the peak liquidity question I am submitting some data points that suggest that the speculative part of the bubble may have already popped back in February/March.
Consider the following:
What happened in February? Well, the same thing that happened in March and April. Risk assets made new all time highs, be it $SPX, crypto, you name it.
Yet while $NDX made a new all time high again last week along with Bitcoin and $DJIA and $SPX we can observe changes. Take a look at cumulative advance decline $NAAD. It peaked in February and last week’s highs show a very pronounced relative weakness in cumulative advance/decline: