So, the first week of the year brought us – the worst first day for stocks in two decades, the “darkest day in American democracy”, a dismal jobs print (far worse than expected), ISM beats that were almost entirely predicated on model misattribution of global supply chain disruptions, a blue-sweep of government (fiscal-palooza), and the highest levels of COVID “cases” and deaths.
What really mattered? The Fed said “no taper” anytime soon, and promises of more $2000 checks and more and more – both of which sparked ‘reflation’ trades everywhere with cryptos soaring, bond yields spiking and Small-Caps surging relative to Big-Tech.
Everything was fine today until a) 10Y Yields broke above 1.10% (VaR shock impacts on stocks), and b) Sen. Manchin spoiled the party by saying he would not support $2000 checks)…
But Biden saved the day late-on with promises of lots of money for all…$15 min wage for all… and stimulus in the trillions… stocks went wild! (Small Caps had a down day today)