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US: Yet Another Poll Oversamples Democrats As Pollsters Fail To Learn From 2016

As we’ve noted numerous times over the past several years, a trick commonly employed by pollsters to achieve a desired outcome is oversampling – including more Democrats and left-leaning independents than Republicans and right-leaning independents in surveys in order to make it appear as though a candidate is doing better than they actually are.

The result of absurdly skewed polls in 2016 likely gave Democrats a false sense of security about Hillary Clinton’s actual chances of winning the election. And it’s happening again!

ABC-Ipsos’s new poll – which ostensibly shows President Trump in trouble – surveyed just 533 people, without a preference for likely or registered voters, and with a significant Democratic Party skew.

The poll – cited across the news media on Sunday – purported to show the public at odds with the President over the coronavirus pandemic as well as the widely debunked story about his supposedly derogatory comments about the military.

But the poll is almost less scientific than a Twitter survey, given who was polled and in what percentages and ratios.

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