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US: Real-Time Data Shows That After Peaking In Late June, Consumer Spending Is Now Declining

When we last looked at real-time consumer spending data one month ago, we saw a stunning rebound in Bank of America credit and debit card spending trends, with total card spending ex-autos essentially recovering pre-covid levels by early June.

No doubt, a big part of this was due to the surge in Personal Income since the start of the current recession, which as we explained earlier was a function of the extremely generous fiscal stimulus which meant that on a per capita basis, claimants received roughly $788/week ($41k annualized) on average, well above the usual amount of roughly $300 in a normal labor environment ($15-$16k annualized).

Unfortunately, both this massive government handout and this impressive spending spree are now is coming to an end, and as JPM writes, in data through Sunday, July 5, the bank’s tracker of spending by a panel of 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders remains below its recent peak on June 22, and it appears to have flattened out at this lower level as COVID-19 spreads rapidly in some parts of the country.

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