Just a few days ago, forecasting Super Tuesday state wins and delegate projections seemed straightforwardly doable. Bernie Sanders, coming off of a half-win in Iowa, followed by a narrow win in New Hampshire and a blowout win in Nevada, would build up a large, if not insurmountable, delegate lead on March 3, when 14 states hold primaries accounting for one-third of all pledged delegates in the primary season. He would do so on the strength of his comfortable lead in California, and by either winning other states or earning a healthy share of delegates across the board. His field of rivals, meanwhile, would only have splintered the opposition and cleared this path for him.
The case is so different today that it seems foolish to even speculate about how the day will play out, since news altering the shape of the race is breaking by the minute. Joe Biden’s dominating performance in the South Carolina primary prompted three of the top six candidates—Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Tom Steyer—to drop out within about 36 hours of each other. Two of those candidates, Buttigieg and Klobuchar, along with other top Democrats like former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, have endorsed Biden in an effort to consolidate the center-left of the party around him, and to stop Sanders.