Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders may be surging in the polls ahead of Super Tuesday, but some on Wall Street have made their own conclusions on what November will bring: four more years of President Donald Trump.
Ninety-five percent of participants in a Deutsche Bank survey of investors, economists and other market participants released earlier this month said Trump, a Republican, was either “extremely likely” or “slightly likely” to win the general election.
Those results contrast with some wider recent polls cited on RealClearPolitics, which show any Democrat beating Trump in a presidential contest, although top contenders have a bigger lead. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted Feb. 19-25, showed Sanders with a seven percentage-point lead over Trump in a hypothetical general election matchup.
The sharp mismatch in expectations could stoke market volatility if Wall Streeters are wrong and a Democrat emerges victorious – especially if that winner is Sanders, whose promises to break up big banks, take on drug companies and essentially abolish private insurance in favor of a single government-run plan have unnerved some investors. Many on Wall Street were unprepared for Trump’s win in 2016, which was followed by sharp swings in asset prices.