“Summer Breeze makes me feel fine… blowing thru the jasmine on my mind..!
Run for the hills..? Nope.
How much more horrible does this need to get: Chinese Police Troops poised on the Hong Kong Border? Bond Yields inverted and tumbling lower? Germany sliding into recession? China hiding internal pain? Global Equity threatening to puke completely? Italy government about to fall? Brexit? Trade wars deepening? Political gridlock? Geopolitical uncertainty? A new banking crisis? The outlook looks horrible… but Relax. Just Do It! The sun will likely come up tomorrow. And don’t forget we are right in the Ides of August: the thinnest, most illiquid time of the year. Crashes usually happen in October!
We’ve also got a growing awareness from global regulators, central bankers, and politicians of just how badly flawed policy responses and their unintended consequences have been since 2008. None of them want to jeopardize their electoral chances or future careers. If crisis crunches into crash there is the reality of a rescue bailout to factor in. (How is the question – central banks are out of options on rates, so I guess they just buy everything and end the logic of free markets for ever…)
Plus, it’s a simple fact there is loads and loads of ready cash sitting waiting for the opportunity to invest on a market reset. When the whole street is waiting for a correction as the moment to buy… It doesn’t happen till you don’t expect it.
Let’s not be overly optimistic. There are clearly troubles ahead, but I suspect they are likely to be tactical in the short-run. The risk is a couple of tactical shocks could precipitate a strategic collapse. Let me explain – all it might take is a couple of key stock shocks to really crush market sentiment, and spin us into a situation where the “authorities” have to respond to crisis.